HOW TO EVALUATE PACE

Years ago the only way a handicapper could compute a pace figure for each horse was to compare fractional times to a "par" figure, adjust for lengths behind the leader and further adjust for the speed of that racetrack in general and the speed of that track on the day of that race. These calculations were time consuming and often required judgments that could often be wrong (i.e. was the track fast-fast, fast average or fast-slow). Even when you had a figure on every horse the numbers could be worthless if rated off a different distance than today's or many other reasons.

Today, many of the internet past performance providers give you already calculated pace ratings for early, middle and late pace. I know that many handicappers religiously use these numbers and often rely, to their detriment, on their handicapping value. If you compare the pace figures from one provider to another (e.g., BRIS versus your track program) the numbers could be substantially different. Who do you trust?

When all of the entrants have raced over today's distance, it's pretty easy to tell from the past performance lines if they are front-runners, pressers or come-from behind types. The modern race tracks of today, with a few exceptions, have pretty much the same track speed so, if you wonder if horse A can get the lead over horse B, the fractional times alone will usually answer the question. The exceptions would be tracks like Turf Paradise where cheap horses run to very fast fractions off this lightning track.

After years of fooling around trying to calculate pace numbers or incorporate someone else's numbers into my handicapping, I concluded that final speed ratings (e.g., Beyer or the DRF's rating plus track varient) are really the most reliable "figures" to use. I don't really care if a horse can run at Grade 1 level speed for a half mile if he spits out the bit and dies after 5 furlongs. The final speed figure will show me if the horse is competative today.

Reviewing pace is probably most important when looking at horses that usually come from behind. The more early speed there is in the race the better chance those horses have to run down the worn out speedballs. For example, at a recent Philadelphia Park race, a horse was entered who usually was dead last early on but made big stretch runs late. He usually came up short at the wire because he was so sluggish early on. But in this race there were several speedballs entered plus this horse was dropping in class today. The result? He caught the exhausted frontrunners in mid-stretch and won going away at odds of 9/1. Pacewise, the race shaped up for him but the key to the win was the drop in class.

In summary, don't go overboard trying to numerically handicap a race through pace figures. Speed figures will work just fine. It is also a good idea to never married to any figure, or combination of figures other than as a means to sort out the true contention in a race. Remember, horses are lousy at math.

Good luck!

HOW TO HANDICAP FOREIGN FIRST TIME STARTERS

Past performance information on horses running in the USA for the first time is usually too limited to be of much value. It used to be appropriate to just eliminate these horses until they have run at least one time over a North American track. It was a rare event to see a first-timer in the money on its first attempt. These horses not only had to adjust to the significant differences between where they had been running and North American racing but they were also usually entered into races much higher in class than their ability warranted.

The situation has changed in recent years, especially for foreign imports from Europe. Class levels in Europe have risen substantially. The trauma of overseas shipping has been minimized. The result is that many of these animals turn in sharp performances at first asking in the USA. How can handicappers tell if this shipper will run well? While it is impossible to give a definitive answer to that question, the following are some guidelines to help you to determine if this shipper has a chance today:

1. If the shipper shows Time Form ratings (which are based on class and speed) you can estimate the horse's potential by SUBTRACTING 12-15 points from these ratings and compare these to the Beyer ratings of other horses in today's race or the Beyer class par, if you have that information. If the numbers are close you would be unwise to eliminate the animal. You should either include it in your exotic wagers or pass the race;

2. Horses coming from countries outside of Europe are a different story. First, they do not show Time Form ratings. Second, in most cases the level of competition they have been facing is probably well below the class level of today's race. Because these animals are from cheaper stock, they probably did not receive the pampered treatment given to expensive Europeon horses and will still be subject to the traumatic effects of travel, time changes and even climate. It is still usually a safe option to eliminate these animals from further consideration. Sometimes one of them will bite you but it will not happen often.

Once in a while, particulary at California major tracks, you may find two or three foreign first-timers entered in the same race. With or without Time Form ratings it is a good idea to simply pass this kind of race since you are injecting too many unknown factors into the handicapping equation. There will be other races on the card that will be much more predictable and worthy of your betting attention.

Good luck!

PRACTICAL HANDICAPPING

This blog is designed to do two things; provide on-going tips and advice about handicapping topics that are often overlooked by most handicapping writers and to introduce you to my book Practical Handicapping, Comprehensive Handicapping for the Weekend Horseplayer.

This book is designed to improve the handicapping ability of horseplayers at every level;

It quickly defines what races to play and what races to pass;

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It establishes a rating "figure" for each horse that allows you to instantly eliminate 25 - 50% of all starters. These elimination rules preserve 98% of all eventual winners and 95% of all winning exactas;

It provides a betting procedure that shows you not only how to bet but how much to bet;

Two completely handicapped race cards are included taking you step by step through the method.

Hundreds of copies of this book have been sold for a price of $29.95. We are offering a special discounted price for our blog readers of $24.95.

To order, please send your check or money order to:

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Hampton, VA 23661

In future posts we will discuss how to use Time Form ratings and how to evaluate first-time races for foreign horses; the value, or lack thereof, of pace ratings; the best ways to use Beyer figures; how to handle horses coming off long lay-offs; when to place faith in a trainer's judgement and when not to; techniques you can use to evaluate first time starters; when Tomlinson ratings are important and when they are not, and similar topics that are not handled very well and are often not addressed at all by other publications.

Good luck!

RACES TO AVOID

It is always tempting to bet every race on a given card but that is a sure way to wind up with holes in your shoes. There are some races that are just not playable and should be avoided. These include:

Maiden races with two or more first time starters. You might consider playing a race with not more than two first timers if the morning line odds for both are at least 8/1.

Maiden races with one first timer with morning line odds of 6/1 or less. You have to include this horse in your exotic bets if you insist on playing it.

Maiden route races on the grass. This just adds one more unknown. OK to play these if all of the entries show prior grass races.

Races with one or more foreign horses running in this country for the first time. An exception may be made if the horse shows time form ratings. In a later post, we will show you how to handicap these horses.

Dirt races originally carded for the grass if two or more of the post-scratch entrants show no recent dirt races that you can evaluate.

Turf races with several entrants who have either not raced on the grass or do not have enough grass experience in their PP's to enable you to reasonably evaluate their chances today.

Two year old races going a mile or more and most of the entrants show no routes in their past performances. It is a good idea to skip most two year old races until at least September 1 or just stick to sprints provided they all have somes PP's to evaluate.

Races run in the slop or mud if the track gets very heavy under these circumstances. You can tell if the track is holding (and thereby very tiring) if you watch a race or two and the horses seem to be running in single file in the stretch with big gaps between the horses. This indicates a very tiring track and makes handicapping extremely difficult.

Races run at 1 1/4 miles or longer unless most of the horses have PP's showing races at least as long as today's. I leave it up to you if you want to play the Kentucky Derby and/or the Belmont Stakes. It takes a special kind of horse to run at these distances and you won't know which ones are special until the race is over.

The key to long-term successful handicapping is to limit the number of unknown factors and to concentrate your efforts on races where most, if not all, of the entrants have proven records under conditions similar to today's.

Good luck!

MISLEADING BEYER FIGURES

Beyer figures earned on the grass are not equivilent to Beyer's earned on the dirt. If you base your handicapping primarily on a horse's last 3 or 4 races (and you should), you need to adjust Beyer figures that were earned on a surface other than today's. Our studies indicate that most horses that run well on both dirt and grass earn Beyer figures of 8 to 10 points higher on grass than they earn on dirt. A small number of horses earn bigger numbers on dirt but these are rare. The best way to see how a surface change affects a given horse is to separately average the grass and dirt Beyers shown in the horse's past performances, assuming there are at least 3 or 4 races of each type in the PP's. If a horse has average Beyers of, say, 5 points faster on grass and today's race is on the dirt, subtract 5 points from each dirt race Beyer to obtain an adjusted rating for today's dirt surface. The maximum adjustment either way should not exceed 10 points. Of course, if a horse has at least 2 good races (we consider a race "good" if the horse ran in the money or within 5 lengths) over TODAY's surface, just use those races without any adjustment.

If a horse has no races over today's surface or not enough to calculate an average adjustment and you have no choice but to use races over a different surface, ADD 10 points to dirt ratings if today is on the sod and SUBTRACT 10 points from grass races if on dirt today. This adjustment works remarkably for most, but not all, horses. However, if you have several horses in the field that require this mechanical adjustment (e.g. when rain forces a grass race to be run on dirt) it is probably a good idea to just pass the race. This is particularly true if there is a switch to a sloppy or muddy dirt track for horses that have mainly grass races in their PP's. Going off their usual surface is bad enough but adding the element of slop or mud is a double whammy that creates too many unknowns.

There is not yet enough data available to see if Turfway Park's new synthetic surface leads to distortions in the Beyer figures when a Turfway horse runs on conventional dirt. That will be a subject for another article. Good luck!

Hello Handicappers!

This blog is designed for people who enjoy betting on thoroughbred horse racing and who are looking for tips and techniques to earn a profit at the end of the day. Being a consistent winner at the track is not easy. Only about 10% of steady horse players show a profit over the long term. In the era before computers and simulcasting, it was relatively easy for a sophisticated handicapper to develop methods to sustain a profit margin at his or her local track since the only ones you had to beat were the people at that track on that day. Today, instead of competing against the local track attendance, you are now faced with competition from thousands of punters from all over the country and even from abroad. Many of them are using high tech handicapping software that correlates hundreds of handicapping factors from enormous data bases to make betting selections. These programs generate vast flows of cash directed to essentially the same horses in a given race thereby depressing the odds to a level where making a profit can be extremely difficult. Facing this new competition and surviving it is a daunting task and one would think that this game is no longer a winning proposition. NOT TRUE! And here's why:

Fifty years ago the betting favorite at all tracks across the country won an average of 1/3 of the races;
Twenty years ago the betting favorite at all tracks across the country won an average of 1/3 of the races; and
Last year the betting favorite at all tracks across the country won an average of 1/3 of the races.

Despite all of this sophisticated technology and the collective wisdom of thousands of handicappers there has been no net improvement in the public's ability to pick winners, only a depression in the amount those winners pay. We will show you ways to still make money in this game and intriduce you to our new book, Practical Handicapping, that we guarantee will make you a better handicapper.