HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING: THE TRAINER FACTOR

It should be obvious to any handicapper that a horse entered into a given race that has a trainer with a high winning percentage is a better betting proposition than a horse from an inferior barn. The questions are how significant is this factor and at what winning level does a trainer have to show in order to get extra consideration. We have just completed an extensive study of this issue and have reached the following conclusions:

1. A trainer that has at least 30 starts in his current record and who shows a winning percentage of 15% or higher has a huge edge over trainers that cannot meet this standard;
2. Trainers that win 15% or more of the time accounted for 35% of the trainers in our study but they won an amazing 67% of the races;
3. Trainers with winning percentages between 10-14% constituted 26% of all trainers but won only 16% of the their races;
4. Trainers showing a win percentage of less than 10% or, over at least a 6 month period of time had less than 30 starts, constituted 39% of all trainers but they only accounted for 18% of the winners.

Impact Values (IV's) are a comparison of the percentage of horses that won their races divided by the percentage of all entrants that posses a certain characteristic; in this case, trainer winning percentage. An impact value higher than 1 is a positive factor, less than 1 is negative and exactly 1 is neutral. Our study showed that the 15% or better trainer's impact value was a highly signicant 1.90. The 10-14% group had a negative IV of 0.60 and the less than 10%/less than 30 starts group had a terrible IV of 0.46.

There are many races in which there is more than 1 trainer with a 15% or better rating. There are also races where no trainer rates that high which is why the winning percentage of this group seems high. Certain conclusions can , however, be made from these statistics. A race that has NO trainers with a 15% or better rating is really a crap shoot. None of these trainers have the face value ability to assure the bettor that their horses are fit and able to win and, since some nag has to win, it could be just about anything in the race. It would therefore be prudent to pass these kind of races unless you really like to gamble. In races were there are multiple 15% types, and these are usually the better races on the card, winning percentage is a good tool to use when identifying contenders. Horses with inferior trainers in these races seldom win and can usually be eliminated outright. The 15% standard means the remaining horses are likely to be fit and ready to run and other handicapping factors (e.g., class, speed, etc.) can be used to separate them. The ideal race is one in which there is a single entrant from a 15% or better barn. This horse has an edge over the rest as long as there are no glaring flaws in its record. The horse becomes an even more outstanding bet if the trainer's winning percentage is 20% or more.

One other factor about trainers is worth noting. Handicappers sometimes toss a horse because they are trying something new (first time on grass, new distance, higher class, etc.). However, if the trainer of that horse is in the elite 15% or better category, smart handicappers should give the trainer the benefit of the doubt that he knows what he is doing with these kind of moves. The Racing Form trainer stats shown for each horse can also be very helpful in the decision to "forgive" a horse. In a previous blog we honed in on a horse trying the grass for the first time. The trainer showed a 17% win percent for first time on the grass starters and an overall 20% win rate. We "forgave" the surface switch and had this horse in our exacta. He won and paid $21 to win and completed a $101 exacta. The good guys know how to train and they know their horses much better than you do so PAY HEED to that winning percentage!

Good luck!