HOW TO HANDICAP FOREIGN FIRST TIME STARTERS

Past performance information on horses running in the USA for the first time is usually too limited to be of much value. It used to be appropriate to just eliminate these horses until they have run at least one time over a North American track. It was a rare event to see a first-timer in the money on its first attempt. These horses not only had to adjust to the significant differences between where they had been running and North American racing but they were also usually entered into races much higher in class than their ability warranted.

The situation has changed in recent years, especially for foreign imports from Europe. Class levels in Europe have risen substantially. The trauma of overseas shipping has been minimized. The result is that many of these animals turn in sharp performances at first asking in the USA. How can handicappers tell if this shipper will run well? While it is impossible to give a definitive answer to that question, the following are some guidelines to help you to determine if this shipper has a chance today:

1. If the shipper shows Time Form ratings (which are based on class and speed) you can estimate the horse's potential by SUBTRACTING 12-15 points from these ratings and compare these to the Beyer ratings of other horses in today's race or the Beyer class par, if you have that information. If the numbers are close you would be unwise to eliminate the animal. You should either include it in your exotic wagers or pass the race;

2. Horses coming from countries outside of Europe are a different story. First, they do not show Time Form ratings. Second, in most cases the level of competition they have been facing is probably well below the class level of today's race. Because these animals are from cheaper stock, they probably did not receive the pampered treatment given to expensive Europeon horses and will still be subject to the traumatic effects of travel, time changes and even climate. It is still usually a safe option to eliminate these animals from further consideration. Sometimes one of them will bite you but it will not happen often.

Once in a while, particulary at California major tracks, you may find two or three foreign first-timers entered in the same race. With or without Time Form ratings it is a good idea to simply pass this kind of race since you are injecting too many unknown factors into the handicapping equation. There will be other races on the card that will be much more predictable and worthy of your betting attention.

Good luck!