RACES TO AVOID
It is always tempting to bet every race on a given card but that is a sure way to wind up with holes in your shoes. There are some races that are just not playable and should be avoided. These include:
Maiden races with two or more first time starters. You might consider playing a race with not more than two first timers if the morning line odds for both are at least 8/1.
Maiden races with one first timer with morning line odds of 6/1 or less. You have to include this horse in your exotic bets if you insist on playing it.
Maiden route races on the grass. This just adds one more unknown. OK to play these if all of the entries show prior grass races.
Races with one or more foreign horses running in this country for the first time. An exception may be made if the horse shows time form ratings. In a later post, we will show you how to handicap these horses.
Dirt races originally carded for the grass if two or more of the post-scratch entrants show no recent dirt races that you can evaluate.
Turf races with several entrants who have either not raced on the grass or do not have enough grass experience in their PP's to enable you to reasonably evaluate their chances today.
Two year old races going a mile or more and most of the entrants show no routes in their past performances. It is a good idea to skip most two year old races until at least September 1 or just stick to sprints provided they all have somes PP's to evaluate.
Races run in the slop or mud if the track gets very heavy under these circumstances. You can tell if the track is holding (and thereby very tiring) if you watch a race or two and the horses seem to be running in single file in the stretch with big gaps between the horses. This indicates a very tiring track and makes handicapping extremely difficult.
Races run at 1 1/4 miles or longer unless most of the horses have PP's showing races at least as long as today's. I leave it up to you if you want to play the Kentucky Derby and/or the Belmont Stakes. It takes a special kind of horse to run at these distances and you won't know which ones are special until the race is over.
The key to long-term successful handicapping is to limit the number of unknown factors and to concentrate your efforts on races where most, if not all, of the entrants have proven records under conditions similar to today's.
Good luck!
It is always tempting to bet every race on a given card but that is a sure way to wind up with holes in your shoes. There are some races that are just not playable and should be avoided. These include:
Maiden races with two or more first time starters. You might consider playing a race with not more than two first timers if the morning line odds for both are at least 8/1.
Maiden races with one first timer with morning line odds of 6/1 or less. You have to include this horse in your exotic bets if you insist on playing it.
Maiden route races on the grass. This just adds one more unknown. OK to play these if all of the entries show prior grass races.
Races with one or more foreign horses running in this country for the first time. An exception may be made if the horse shows time form ratings. In a later post, we will show you how to handicap these horses.
Dirt races originally carded for the grass if two or more of the post-scratch entrants show no recent dirt races that you can evaluate.
Turf races with several entrants who have either not raced on the grass or do not have enough grass experience in their PP's to enable you to reasonably evaluate their chances today.
Two year old races going a mile or more and most of the entrants show no routes in their past performances. It is a good idea to skip most two year old races until at least September 1 or just stick to sprints provided they all have somes PP's to evaluate.
Races run in the slop or mud if the track gets very heavy under these circumstances. You can tell if the track is holding (and thereby very tiring) if you watch a race or two and the horses seem to be running in single file in the stretch with big gaps between the horses. This indicates a very tiring track and makes handicapping extremely difficult.
Races run at 1 1/4 miles or longer unless most of the horses have PP's showing races at least as long as today's. I leave it up to you if you want to play the Kentucky Derby and/or the Belmont Stakes. It takes a special kind of horse to run at these distances and you won't know which ones are special until the race is over.
The key to long-term successful handicapping is to limit the number of unknown factors and to concentrate your efforts on races where most, if not all, of the entrants have proven records under conditions similar to today's.
Good luck!
posted by Sterling Publications | 5:48 AM
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