HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING: THE JOCKEY FACTOR

In our last blog we discussed the importance of the quality of a horse's trainer as a major factor when handicapping a race. Today, we will take a look at the jockey factor. It would seem to be obvious that the best jockeys at any given track get to ride the better horses at that track. It would also seem obvious that poorer jockeys rarely have the chance to ride the better horses due to their inferior riding ability. The trick is to determine the characteristics that identify these two jockey catagories.

Our research based on non-maiden races has determined that a jockey that can win 15% or more of his starts (with 50 or more starts) has a significant edge over jockeys who do not do as well. This edge is even more pronounced if the jockey has ridden the horse in the past and especially so if he shows a prior win on this horse. About 80% of the jockey colony at the average track cannot meet this 15% standard. Since they are the majority of the riders they still win about 25% of the races. However, in terms of Impact Values, this is equates to an IV of 0.35 which is a significant negative. If one of these riders shows a past effort on this horse (winning or losing), the IV improves a little to 0.45. This is still a very low IV and would hardly instill confidence in an astute handicapper. These negative IV's include all riders with winning percentages below 15%. Horses ridden by Jockeys with win percentages below 10% are extremely poor betting propositions and are most likely in the race for excercise.

Approximately 49% of the races are won by the elite group. Even if a 15% jock has never ridden on this horse before, he still has a strongly positive IV of 2.45. If he has won on this horse in the past, the IV shoots up to an amazing 3.15. Of course, there are many races, especially the highest quality races, where there is more than one 15% rider. Non-elite jocks are at a severe disadvantage when competing against several elite jockeys in the same race. When there is more than one of these top riders, other handicapping factors need to be applied to sort out the better bets among them but you should severly discount the chances of horses ridden by inferior jockeys.

In quality races (top allowances, handicaps and stakes) all trainers want the best to be atop their best. They might allow an average jockey to ride their cheaper horses but not when they are going for the big bucks. There is very little tolerance for jockey error in a big race. Many trainers have difficulty getting elite jockeys on their mounts because these top riders have prior committments to other trainers. Quality trainers have a small group of quality jockeys that they routinely use in these big races. There is tremendous competition among jockey agents to gain the attention and favor from these trainers for the jocks they represent.

At any race level, a horse that is trained by a trainer who wins 15% or more of the time that is also being ridden by a 15% or better jockey, especially one that has previously won on this horse, is a powerful combination that should never be ignored or overlooked by a handicapper. If you find just one such horse in a race you have an excellent spot play, especially if the odds are favorable.

This research and our trainer research shows the importance of paying attention to these factors in order to improve the handicapping bottom line. Therefore, do not be overly swayed by a horse's apparently decent recent past races if it comes from both a poor barn and is ridden today by a poor jockey. Routinely betting such horses is an almost sure way for you to wind up with holes in your shoes.

Good luck!