HOW TO EVALUATE PACE

Years ago the only way a handicapper could compute a pace figure for each horse was to compare fractional times to a "par" figure, adjust for lengths behind the leader and further adjust for the speed of that racetrack in general and the speed of that track on the day of that race. These calculations were time consuming and often required judgments that could often be wrong (i.e. was the track fast-fast, fast average or fast-slow). Even when you had a figure on every horse the numbers could be worthless if rated off a different distance than today's or many other reasons.

Today, many of the internet past performance providers give you already calculated pace ratings for early, middle and late pace. I know that many handicappers religiously use these numbers and often rely, to their detriment, on their handicapping value. If you compare the pace figures from one provider to another (e.g., BRIS versus your track program) the numbers could be substantially different. Who do you trust?

When all of the entrants have raced over today's distance, it's pretty easy to tell from the past performance lines if they are front-runners, pressers or come-from behind types. The modern race tracks of today, with a few exceptions, have pretty much the same track speed so, if you wonder if horse A can get the lead over horse B, the fractional times alone will usually answer the question. The exceptions would be tracks like Turf Paradise where cheap horses run to very fast fractions off this lightning track.

After years of fooling around trying to calculate pace numbers or incorporate someone else's numbers into my handicapping, I concluded that final speed ratings (e.g., Beyer or the DRF's rating plus track varient) are really the most reliable "figures" to use. I don't really care if a horse can run at Grade 1 level speed for a half mile if he spits out the bit and dies after 5 furlongs. The final speed figure will show me if the horse is competative today.

Reviewing pace is probably most important when looking at horses that usually come from behind. The more early speed there is in the race the better chance those horses have to run down the worn out speedballs. For example, at a recent Philadelphia Park race, a horse was entered who usually was dead last early on but made big stretch runs late. He usually came up short at the wire because he was so sluggish early on. But in this race there were several speedballs entered plus this horse was dropping in class today. The result? He caught the exhausted frontrunners in mid-stretch and won going away at odds of 9/1. Pacewise, the race shaped up for him but the key to the win was the drop in class.

In summary, don't go overboard trying to numerically handicap a race through pace figures. Speed figures will work just fine. It is also a good idea to never married to any figure, or combination of figures other than as a means to sort out the true contention in a race. Remember, horses are lousy at math.

Good luck!