TRACKS TO AVOID

If you really want to throw your handicapping dollars away, we have an excellent suggestion for you. Make sure you bet heavily during the first few days of an off-circuit meet and be prepared to leave with holes in your shoes. Consider, for example, winter tracks like Gulfstream, Tampa Bay and Fairgrounds, spring meetings at tracks like Keeneland and summer meetings at any track that attracts shippers from all over the country (e.g., Finger Lakes) and many have these horses have not had a race in several months. Another good way to throw away money is to bet at tracks like Colonial Downs where virtually every race is on the grass and many are filled with horses trying the sod for the first time. Another category would be tracks that recently converted from dirt to polytrack or the start of a polytrack meet with most of the horses coming to the track have little or no synthetic racing surface experience.

At the winter tracks many horses have been rested during the fall and have not had a race in several months, let alone a race over this track. It's a crap shoot when you try and determine if a given horse is in shape to run today or will need a few races to return to prior form. Past performances for these animals are worthless until you can tell if the horse is ready to run and the best time to know that answer is after the race is over.

As an example of what we mean, consider the 10 race card at Tampa Bay Downs on January 4, 2008. Only 4 horses had 2 races over the track and about half were running over it for the first time. Also, about half the entrants had not raced anywhere in many weeks. In the 2 turf races scheduled that day, only 4 horses showed a race over Tampa's turf course. This created a highly unpredictable betting scenario, particularly for exotic bets. The second place horse in the 2nd race went off at 19/1, the place horse in the 4th was 22/1, the place horse in the 5th was 12/1, 66/1 in the 8th, 28/1 in the 9th and 38/1 in the 10th.

In order to survive in this game, handicappers must strive to reduce the number of variables they have to consider to the least amount possible. While these winter tracks are certainly wonderful facilities to attend or even to watch they can be deadly early in the season to even the best horse players. In these days of multiple track simulcasting there is no need to waste your money on these unknown horses - you can always find a track (e.g., Maryland, Philadelphia Park, Aqueduct, etc.) where the weather might not be warm and sunny but the horse racing is considerably more predictable because the horses have been running over these surfaces and against each other for a long time.

Can you still bet these tracks? Of course you can but give the horses some time to get a few races under their collective belts before committing any serious money betting on them. If you still feel compelled to bet at these tracks early in the year, pay much more attention to the horses that have a race over the track and don't over-emphasize past performances earned at other tracks, particularly when the animal has not raced in awhile. Also, pay attention to trainers that do well with horses off layoffs. Every one of the long odds horses shown above either had a race over the track or the trainers had an outstanding layoff record. In the 8th race, for example, the winner's trainer showed a 23% win rate for his laid off horses and the 2nd place horse won over this track last out. Even though the place horse was rising in class from a lowly $5,000 claimer to a lofty $25,000, he was able to get 2nd place money and the exacta paid a whopping $261.20. The old saying caveat emptor does indeed apply to horse racing!

Good luck!