MISLEADING BEYER FIGURES
Beyer figures earned on the grass are not equivilent to Beyer's earned on the dirt. If you base your handicapping primarily on a horse's last 3 or 4 races (and you should), you need to adjust Beyer figures that were earned on a surface other than today's. Our studies indicate that most horses that run well on both dirt and grass earn Beyer figures of 8 to 10 points higher on grass than they earn on dirt. A small number of horses earn bigger numbers on dirt but these are rare. The best way to see how a surface change affects a given horse is to separately average the grass and dirt Beyers shown in the horse's past performances, assuming there are at least 3 or 4 races of each type in the PP's. If a horse has average Beyers of, say, 5 points faster on grass and today's race is on the dirt, subtract 5 points from each dirt race Beyer to obtain an adjusted rating for today's dirt surface. The maximum adjustment either way should not exceed 10 points. Of course, if a horse has at least 2 good races (we consider a race "good" if the horse ran in the money or within 5 lengths) over TODAY's surface, just use those races without any adjustment.
If a horse has no races over today's surface or not enough to calculate an average adjustment and you have no choice but to use races over a different surface, ADD 10 points to dirt ratings if today is on the sod and SUBTRACT 10 points from grass races if on dirt today. This adjustment works remarkably for most, but not all, horses. However, if you have several horses in the field that require this mechanical adjustment (e.g. when rain forces a grass race to be run on dirt) it is probably a good idea to just pass the race. This is particularly true if there is a switch to a sloppy or muddy dirt track for horses that have mainly grass races in their PP's. Going off their usual surface is bad enough but adding the element of slop or mud is a double whammy that creates too many unknowns.
There is not yet enough data available to see if Turfway Park's new synthetic surface leads to distortions in the Beyer figures when a Turfway horse runs on conventional dirt. That will be a subject for another article. Good luck!
Beyer figures earned on the grass are not equivilent to Beyer's earned on the dirt. If you base your handicapping primarily on a horse's last 3 or 4 races (and you should), you need to adjust Beyer figures that were earned on a surface other than today's. Our studies indicate that most horses that run well on both dirt and grass earn Beyer figures of 8 to 10 points higher on grass than they earn on dirt. A small number of horses earn bigger numbers on dirt but these are rare. The best way to see how a surface change affects a given horse is to separately average the grass and dirt Beyers shown in the horse's past performances, assuming there are at least 3 or 4 races of each type in the PP's. If a horse has average Beyers of, say, 5 points faster on grass and today's race is on the dirt, subtract 5 points from each dirt race Beyer to obtain an adjusted rating for today's dirt surface. The maximum adjustment either way should not exceed 10 points. Of course, if a horse has at least 2 good races (we consider a race "good" if the horse ran in the money or within 5 lengths) over TODAY's surface, just use those races without any adjustment.
If a horse has no races over today's surface or not enough to calculate an average adjustment and you have no choice but to use races over a different surface, ADD 10 points to dirt ratings if today is on the sod and SUBTRACT 10 points from grass races if on dirt today. This adjustment works remarkably for most, but not all, horses. However, if you have several horses in the field that require this mechanical adjustment (e.g. when rain forces a grass race to be run on dirt) it is probably a good idea to just pass the race. This is particularly true if there is a switch to a sloppy or muddy dirt track for horses that have mainly grass races in their PP's. Going off their usual surface is bad enough but adding the element of slop or mud is a double whammy that creates too many unknowns.
There is not yet enough data available to see if Turfway Park's new synthetic surface leads to distortions in the Beyer figures when a Turfway horse runs on conventional dirt. That will be a subject for another article. Good luck!
posted by Sterling Publications | 4:50 AM
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