HOW TO ASSESS TRUE CLASS ABILITY
When handicapping horses, it is essential to be able to determine the true class ability of a horse. You need to know what level of class the horse has performed at in recent races and how well that horse stacks up given the class value of today's race. A horse that has performed well in $10,000 claimers at track A may be woefully outclassed when running for the same face value at track B. Therefore, the class line of a horse has to be adjusted to reflect track class. Another consideration are levels of class within the same apparent class level. A horse entered in a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of 3 lifetime may not competative if all of his previous races were for non-winners of 2 lifetime. This same horse may have a signifcant class edge in a NW3 race if his previous efforts were unconditional claimers or even for horses who have not won 2 or 3 in a year. You also need to be aware of the AGE of the horses in prior races. A horse coming off races limited to 3 year olds is moving up if today's race is for 3 year olds and up (and there are older, more seasoned horses entered today).
In order to solve this dilemma, you need to have access to accurate class pars for every class level and a track class chart for making allowances for track class. For example, let us suppose we have a 5 year old horse that has been running in CLM$5,000NW2 races at Phildelphia Park and goes to Delaware Park to run in an open CLM$6,000 race. On its face this does not appear to be a big move up in class, particularly if the horse was running well in Philadelphia. Class pars tell the real story. The Philadelphia races have a par of 52. The Delaware race has a par of 72. This horse is moving up a substantial 38% in class! All else being equal, it will have little chance to win this race, let alone get in the money.
We have included accurate and reliable charts of class pars for every class level and track pars for every major and most minor tracks in our book Practical Handicapping along with many handicapped races showing you how to use them. This book is priced at $24.95 for our blog readers. As a special offer, we can provide you with just these charts and some sample class examples as a stand-alone product for just $5.95. If you are interested in the complete book or just want the charts send your check or money order to:
When handicapping horses, it is essential to be able to determine the true class ability of a horse. You need to know what level of class the horse has performed at in recent races and how well that horse stacks up given the class value of today's race. A horse that has performed well in $10,000 claimers at track A may be woefully outclassed when running for the same face value at track B. Therefore, the class line of a horse has to be adjusted to reflect track class. Another consideration are levels of class within the same apparent class level. A horse entered in a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of 3 lifetime may not competative if all of his previous races were for non-winners of 2 lifetime. This same horse may have a signifcant class edge in a NW3 race if his previous efforts were unconditional claimers or even for horses who have not won 2 or 3 in a year. You also need to be aware of the AGE of the horses in prior races. A horse coming off races limited to 3 year olds is moving up if today's race is for 3 year olds and up (and there are older, more seasoned horses entered today).
In order to solve this dilemma, you need to have access to accurate class pars for every class level and a track class chart for making allowances for track class. For example, let us suppose we have a 5 year old horse that has been running in CLM$5,000NW2 races at Phildelphia Park and goes to Delaware Park to run in an open CLM$6,000 race. On its face this does not appear to be a big move up in class, particularly if the horse was running well in Philadelphia. Class pars tell the real story. The Philadelphia races have a par of 52. The Delaware race has a par of 72. This horse is moving up a substantial 38% in class! All else being equal, it will have little chance to win this race, let alone get in the money.
We have included accurate and reliable charts of class pars for every class level and track pars for every major and most minor tracks in our book Practical Handicapping along with many handicapped races showing you how to use them. This book is priced at $24.95 for our blog readers. As a special offer, we can provide you with just these charts and some sample class examples as a stand-alone product for just $5.95. If you are interested in the complete book or just want the charts send your check or money order to:
Sterling Publications
P. O. Box 1292
Hampton, VA 23661
P. O. Box 1292
Hampton, VA 23661
In upcoming blogs we will show you how the proper use of class and track pars can create handsome profits at the track. You will be able to detect subtle moves in class that unearth hidden contenders that at first glance seem to be dogs with no winning chances. We spotted one just the other day that hit the board with a $21.60 win mutual and completed a fat $102.00 exacta even with the race favorite running second. Stay tuned and
Good luck!
Good luck!
posted by Sterling Publications | 8:23 AM
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