HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING: MYSTERY HORSES
Every once in a while you will find a horse entered in a given race that is making a huge dropdown in class. Most of these horses show a big gap in time since their last race so a handicapper can logically assume that it suffered an injury and the owner is trying to get rid of damaged goods. But what if there is no big gap? I call these horses "Mystery Horses" since their entry in today's race doesn't seem to make any sense.
Consider the horse "Houston's Prayer" who was entered in a lowly $4,000 claiming race at Philadelphia Park on July 22 of this year. This horse's last race was only 35 days before today and he showed a workout just 7 days ago. His last start was a second by a nose loss as the favorite at Belmont Park in a $16,000 claimer. Two races back he was claimed for $35,000 at Aqueduct. During the spring he was running in claimers of $50,000 or more and even ran 5th in a $70,000 handicap at the Meadowlands. He has career earnings of more than a quarter of a million dollars. What the heck is he doing in a $4,000 claimer at a much cheaper track? More importantly, how do you handicap this race with him in it?
One would think that this horse would destroy this field even if he ran on three legs. Do you bet him? It would certainly be attemped suicide to ignore him. So, what should an astute handicapper do in this situation? The only answer is to PASS the race. A tip-off that there is something very wrong about this horse being in this race is during the pre-race betting his odds were holding between 3/1 and 2/1. If he were at all healthy his odds should have been 3/5 or less. This factor indicated that this horse's connections were not betting the animal. He has to have some serious problems but are they enough to cause him to lose against the cheapest stock on the grounds?
The answer to the mystery is WE WILL NEVER KNOW. The horse was scratched at the gate on the order of the track veternarian. If we had bet this horse there was not enough time to make new bets before the race started. As it turned out, two big longshots hit the board for a big exacta. Avoiding this race was by far the best decision. Given the huge drop in class for this horse he should have been checked out by the vet before he left the barn and not ruin the race for bettors by scratching him at the gate.
The above is an extreme example of a Mystery Horse but they crop up with relative frequency. These horses create an element of uncertainty that one really cannot handicap and the race becomes a guessing game. When faced with a horse like this, the best thing to do is to simply pass the race. There will be many more races to bet on that will not incorporate Mystery Horses. Avoid them like the plague.
Good luck!
Every once in a while you will find a horse entered in a given race that is making a huge dropdown in class. Most of these horses show a big gap in time since their last race so a handicapper can logically assume that it suffered an injury and the owner is trying to get rid of damaged goods. But what if there is no big gap? I call these horses "Mystery Horses" since their entry in today's race doesn't seem to make any sense.
Consider the horse "Houston's Prayer" who was entered in a lowly $4,000 claiming race at Philadelphia Park on July 22 of this year. This horse's last race was only 35 days before today and he showed a workout just 7 days ago. His last start was a second by a nose loss as the favorite at Belmont Park in a $16,000 claimer. Two races back he was claimed for $35,000 at Aqueduct. During the spring he was running in claimers of $50,000 or more and even ran 5th in a $70,000 handicap at the Meadowlands. He has career earnings of more than a quarter of a million dollars. What the heck is he doing in a $4,000 claimer at a much cheaper track? More importantly, how do you handicap this race with him in it?
One would think that this horse would destroy this field even if he ran on three legs. Do you bet him? It would certainly be attemped suicide to ignore him. So, what should an astute handicapper do in this situation? The only answer is to PASS the race. A tip-off that there is something very wrong about this horse being in this race is during the pre-race betting his odds were holding between 3/1 and 2/1. If he were at all healthy his odds should have been 3/5 or less. This factor indicated that this horse's connections were not betting the animal. He has to have some serious problems but are they enough to cause him to lose against the cheapest stock on the grounds?
The answer to the mystery is WE WILL NEVER KNOW. The horse was scratched at the gate on the order of the track veternarian. If we had bet this horse there was not enough time to make new bets before the race started. As it turned out, two big longshots hit the board for a big exacta. Avoiding this race was by far the best decision. Given the huge drop in class for this horse he should have been checked out by the vet before he left the barn and not ruin the race for bettors by scratching him at the gate.
The above is an extreme example of a Mystery Horse but they crop up with relative frequency. These horses create an element of uncertainty that one really cannot handicap and the race becomes a guessing game. When faced with a horse like this, the best thing to do is to simply pass the race. There will be many more races to bet on that will not incorporate Mystery Horses. Avoid them like the plague.
Good luck!
posted by Sterling Publications | 8:38 AM
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