HANDICAPPING WITH CLASS PARS
In our last blog we reviewed the concept of class pars as a handicapping tool. This week we will go into more detail as to how to use pars when handicapping a horse race. Beyer class pars for a limited number of class categories are sometimes published in the Daily Racing Form. Pars for a broader range of class categories can be found in several books written by Andrew Beyer and others. None of these publications cover all of the possible race class categories at all tracks. In our last blog we showed you how you can obtain our highly detailed class par charts abstracted from our book, Practical Handicapping.
There are three essentials for using class pars. First, there is the par for today's race, taking into account all of the limiting conditions. Second, there are the pars for a horse's most recent races. Third, there are the pars for the recent races in which the horse had a competative performance.
A $10,000 claiming race can have a wide range of pars depending upon limiting conditions. A $10,000 claimer for non-winners of two lifetime races has a different par than an unconditional claimer as does a $10,000 claimer for non-winners of 2 in a year. It is essential to have accurate pars for each of these levels in order to properly evaluate a horse. Pars lose value the further back they go in a horse's past performances. We limit our analysis to the horse's last three starts provided there is no gap of 6 months or more. If there is a gap we only use those races before the lay-off. If the horse's last race was more than 6 months ago, we use only that race. Long lay-offs usually indicate an injury and can lead to an over valuation of a horse coming off a long layoff so it is important that there are other reasons to think that the horse will perform reasonably well despite the lay-off. We consider a competative race to be one in which the horse ran in the money or finished within 5 or less lengths of the winner. When the horse has no good races in its last 3 starts, we use the race with the closest finish in terms of lengths behind but also penalize the horse 5 class par points to reflect the poor performances.
Let's look at the horse "Gold Stones" that ran in the 8th race at Philadelphis Park on July 9. The race was (F)AllowanceN2X for 3 and up. Our class par for today's race is 71. The horse has only 1 good race in her past 3 starts which was at the same class level and track as today's race. Her last 2 races were at Delaware Park in races with pars of 78 and a whopping 94 and she was totally outclassed in that race. In the 78 level race she was in contention all the way but tired to 4th beaten 8 lengths. Even with a 5 point penalty her adjusted class is still 2 points higher than today's. In her good race her Beyer speed rating was a 72 which is a point higher than today's par. The main knock against her was she was trying the grass today for the first time. However, her trainer wins 17% of the time with first time starters on the grass and is one of the leading trainers at this track so we could not eliminate her on that basis. Her form was not in question, the distance suited her and she had finished in the money in 8 of her last 10 starts. The crowd dismissed her chances based on her 2 defeats in her last two starts and her lack of grass experience, despite her reasonable performance last out at a class level 10% higher than today's. She was my second choice behind my top choice "Buck Trout's Niece". She won handily and paid a fat $21.80. My top choice ran second completing a $101.20 exacta.
Class pars and their proper us will often reveal the hidden contention. While you won't get a lot of big mutuals like this one, enough of them come along to strongly enhance the bankroll and can provide you with some very nice exotic payoffs.
Good luck!
In our last blog we reviewed the concept of class pars as a handicapping tool. This week we will go into more detail as to how to use pars when handicapping a horse race. Beyer class pars for a limited number of class categories are sometimes published in the Daily Racing Form. Pars for a broader range of class categories can be found in several books written by Andrew Beyer and others. None of these publications cover all of the possible race class categories at all tracks. In our last blog we showed you how you can obtain our highly detailed class par charts abstracted from our book, Practical Handicapping.
There are three essentials for using class pars. First, there is the par for today's race, taking into account all of the limiting conditions. Second, there are the pars for a horse's most recent races. Third, there are the pars for the recent races in which the horse had a competative performance.
A $10,000 claiming race can have a wide range of pars depending upon limiting conditions. A $10,000 claimer for non-winners of two lifetime races has a different par than an unconditional claimer as does a $10,000 claimer for non-winners of 2 in a year. It is essential to have accurate pars for each of these levels in order to properly evaluate a horse. Pars lose value the further back they go in a horse's past performances. We limit our analysis to the horse's last three starts provided there is no gap of 6 months or more. If there is a gap we only use those races before the lay-off. If the horse's last race was more than 6 months ago, we use only that race. Long lay-offs usually indicate an injury and can lead to an over valuation of a horse coming off a long layoff so it is important that there are other reasons to think that the horse will perform reasonably well despite the lay-off. We consider a competative race to be one in which the horse ran in the money or finished within 5 or less lengths of the winner. When the horse has no good races in its last 3 starts, we use the race with the closest finish in terms of lengths behind but also penalize the horse 5 class par points to reflect the poor performances.
Let's look at the horse "Gold Stones" that ran in the 8th race at Philadelphis Park on July 9. The race was (F)AllowanceN2X for 3 and up. Our class par for today's race is 71. The horse has only 1 good race in her past 3 starts which was at the same class level and track as today's race. Her last 2 races were at Delaware Park in races with pars of 78 and a whopping 94 and she was totally outclassed in that race. In the 78 level race she was in contention all the way but tired to 4th beaten 8 lengths. Even with a 5 point penalty her adjusted class is still 2 points higher than today's. In her good race her Beyer speed rating was a 72 which is a point higher than today's par. The main knock against her was she was trying the grass today for the first time. However, her trainer wins 17% of the time with first time starters on the grass and is one of the leading trainers at this track so we could not eliminate her on that basis. Her form was not in question, the distance suited her and she had finished in the money in 8 of her last 10 starts. The crowd dismissed her chances based on her 2 defeats in her last two starts and her lack of grass experience, despite her reasonable performance last out at a class level 10% higher than today's. She was my second choice behind my top choice "Buck Trout's Niece". She won handily and paid a fat $21.80. My top choice ran second completing a $101.20 exacta.
Class pars and their proper us will often reveal the hidden contention. While you won't get a lot of big mutuals like this one, enough of them come along to strongly enhance the bankroll and can provide you with some very nice exotic payoffs.
Good luck!
posted by Sterling Publications | 5:18 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home