EXACTA BETTING
Most handicapping books on the market today offer little insight on how to play exactas. In this article we will show you how to play these value bets for significant profits. We assume, of course, that you are a good enough handicapper to pick a fair percentage of winning exactas.
For those players who can afford a decent size bet, we recommend that you consider the top three horses in a given race, based on your handicapping, as PRIMARY contenders and your 4th pick as a SECONDARY contender. You should buy a $4 exacta box on the top 3 horses ($24 bet). You should then key the top three on top each other PLUS your 4th pick (e.g., key the number one contender on top of the 2-3-4, the 2 on top of the 1-3-4, etc.) at the $2 betting level. Each key will cost you $6. Your total bet is then $42. If your box comes in one of your keys will also come in meaning you will have 3 winning tickets on that exacta. If your #4 horse sneaks in you will have that exacta 1 time. You should only play the keys when your #4 horse will generate enough of a payout to not only cover your losing bets but also a decent return on your total bet. Since you will only have one ticket if the #4 horse places you should demand a minimum exacta payoff of at least 150% of your total bet. This would mean a minimum exacta of $63.
If you can't get a decent price on your #4 horse with any of your top three, don't use the key - just box your top 3. If you have a value bet on one key or 2 keys but not on the others, just bet those keys. A lower bet means your acceptable payoff will also drop. One key makes your total bet $30 which allows a play for a minimum #4 horse exacta of $45.
Of course, even with the right price you will lose your bets if the #4 wins. If you are a reasonably decent handicapper this should not happen often and don't fret over it when it does. Because you are going deep into the contention, your #4 often goes off a a fat price and will get you some equally fat exacta payoffs.
Getting multiple hits on an exacta will offset a low price exacta payout. Suppose you make a full bet (box plus all keys) and the exacta is 1-2 but only pays $20. You have this exacta 3 times returning $60, a nice profit of $18 which is almost 150%. If your keys don't play and you just box you get this exacta twice earning $40 on a $24 bet which is a 167% profit.
To see the profit potential, suppose you only hit 3 small exactas and one decent one ($30, $38, $18 and $75) on a 10 race card. Some races are full bets and others have some or no keys so we will assume an average wager of $33 ($330 for the day). You #4 horse completed the $75 exacta so you only got it 1 time, your boxes got the other 3 (for 3 hits each). Your total return for a rather dismal day is still $333. If the $75 exacta was in your box, your return would be $483, a 146% profit.
If your exacta hit rate is less than 40% or your rate is a little higher but only for short prices, you need to bone up on your handicapping. Also, if you can't afford the full bet, use $1 exactas for a maximum wager of $21. Huge profits can be made with a hit rate of 50% or more at decent prices. When you are considering 4 horses in every race it is not that hard to hit 50%. You can do that well off the morning line picks. The occasional big payoff ($100 or more) when you have it 3 times can really add to your bottom line.
In our book "Practical Handicapping" (see blog index) we show how a good day can generate PROFITS of well over $1,000, even with average exacta prices.
Good luck!
Most handicapping books on the market today offer little insight on how to play exactas. In this article we will show you how to play these value bets for significant profits. We assume, of course, that you are a good enough handicapper to pick a fair percentage of winning exactas.
For those players who can afford a decent size bet, we recommend that you consider the top three horses in a given race, based on your handicapping, as PRIMARY contenders and your 4th pick as a SECONDARY contender. You should buy a $4 exacta box on the top 3 horses ($24 bet). You should then key the top three on top each other PLUS your 4th pick (e.g., key the number one contender on top of the 2-3-4, the 2 on top of the 1-3-4, etc.) at the $2 betting level. Each key will cost you $6. Your total bet is then $42. If your box comes in one of your keys will also come in meaning you will have 3 winning tickets on that exacta. If your #4 horse sneaks in you will have that exacta 1 time. You should only play the keys when your #4 horse will generate enough of a payout to not only cover your losing bets but also a decent return on your total bet. Since you will only have one ticket if the #4 horse places you should demand a minimum exacta payoff of at least 150% of your total bet. This would mean a minimum exacta of $63.
If you can't get a decent price on your #4 horse with any of your top three, don't use the key - just box your top 3. If you have a value bet on one key or 2 keys but not on the others, just bet those keys. A lower bet means your acceptable payoff will also drop. One key makes your total bet $30 which allows a play for a minimum #4 horse exacta of $45.
Of course, even with the right price you will lose your bets if the #4 wins. If you are a reasonably decent handicapper this should not happen often and don't fret over it when it does. Because you are going deep into the contention, your #4 often goes off a a fat price and will get you some equally fat exacta payoffs.
Getting multiple hits on an exacta will offset a low price exacta payout. Suppose you make a full bet (box plus all keys) and the exacta is 1-2 but only pays $20. You have this exacta 3 times returning $60, a nice profit of $18 which is almost 150%. If your keys don't play and you just box you get this exacta twice earning $40 on a $24 bet which is a 167% profit.
To see the profit potential, suppose you only hit 3 small exactas and one decent one ($30, $38, $18 and $75) on a 10 race card. Some races are full bets and others have some or no keys so we will assume an average wager of $33 ($330 for the day). You #4 horse completed the $75 exacta so you only got it 1 time, your boxes got the other 3 (for 3 hits each). Your total return for a rather dismal day is still $333. If the $75 exacta was in your box, your return would be $483, a 146% profit.
If your exacta hit rate is less than 40% or your rate is a little higher but only for short prices, you need to bone up on your handicapping. Also, if you can't afford the full bet, use $1 exactas for a maximum wager of $21. Huge profits can be made with a hit rate of 50% or more at decent prices. When you are considering 4 horses in every race it is not that hard to hit 50%. You can do that well off the morning line picks. The occasional big payoff ($100 or more) when you have it 3 times can really add to your bottom line.
In our book "Practical Handicapping" (see blog index) we show how a good day can generate PROFITS of well over $1,000, even with average exacta prices.
Good luck!
posted by Sterling Publications | 7:30 AM
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