HANDICAPPING WITH CLASS PARS

In our last blog we reviewed the concept of class pars as a handicapping tool. This week we will go into more detail as to how to use pars when handicapping a horse race. Beyer class pars for a limited number of class categories are sometimes published in the Daily Racing Form. Pars for a broader range of class categories can be found in several books written by Andrew Beyer and others. None of these publications cover all of the possible race class categories at all tracks. In our last blog we showed you how you can obtain our highly detailed class par charts abstracted from our book, Practical Handicapping.

There are three essentials for using class pars. First, there is the par for today's race, taking into account all of the limiting conditions. Second, there are the pars for a horse's most recent races. Third, there are the pars for the recent races in which the horse had a competative performance.

A $10,000 claiming race can have a wide range of pars depending upon limiting conditions. A $10,000 claimer for non-winners of two lifetime races has a different par than an unconditional claimer as does a $10,000 claimer for non-winners of 2 in a year. It is essential to have accurate pars for each of these levels in order to properly evaluate a horse. Pars lose value the further back they go in a horse's past performances. We limit our analysis to the horse's last three starts provided there is no gap of 6 months or more. If there is a gap we only use those races before the lay-off. If the horse's last race was more than 6 months ago, we use only that race. Long lay-offs usually indicate an injury and can lead to an over valuation of a horse coming off a long layoff so it is important that there are other reasons to think that the horse will perform reasonably well despite the lay-off. We consider a competative race to be one in which the horse ran in the money or finished within 5 or less lengths of the winner. When the horse has no good races in its last 3 starts, we use the race with the closest finish in terms of lengths behind but also penalize the horse 5 class par points to reflect the poor performances.

Let's look at the horse "Gold Stones" that ran in the 8th race at Philadelphis Park on July 9. The race was (F)AllowanceN2X for 3 and up. Our class par for today's race is 71. The horse has only 1 good race in her past 3 starts which was at the same class level and track as today's race. Her last 2 races were at Delaware Park in races with pars of 78 and a whopping 94 and she was totally outclassed in that race. In the 78 level race she was in contention all the way but tired to 4th beaten 8 lengths. Even with a 5 point penalty her adjusted class is still 2 points higher than today's. In her good race her Beyer speed rating was a 72 which is a point higher than today's par. The main knock against her was she was trying the grass today for the first time. However, her trainer wins 17% of the time with first time starters on the grass and is one of the leading trainers at this track so we could not eliminate her on that basis. Her form was not in question, the distance suited her and she had finished in the money in 8 of her last 10 starts. The crowd dismissed her chances based on her 2 defeats in her last two starts and her lack of grass experience, despite her reasonable performance last out at a class level 10% higher than today's. She was my second choice behind my top choice "Buck Trout's Niece". She won handily and paid a fat $21.80. My top choice ran second completing a $101.20 exacta.

Class pars and their proper us will often reveal the hidden contention. While you won't get a lot of big mutuals like this one, enough of them come along to strongly enhance the bankroll and can provide you with some very nice exotic payoffs.

Good luck!

HOW TO ASSESS TRUE CLASS ABILITY

When handicapping horses, it is essential to be able to determine the true class ability of a horse. You need to know what level of class the horse has performed at in recent races and how well that horse stacks up given the class value of today's race. A horse that has performed well in $10,000 claimers at track A may be woefully outclassed when running for the same face value at track B. Therefore, the class line of a horse has to be adjusted to reflect track class. Another consideration are levels of class within the same apparent class level. A horse entered in a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of 3 lifetime may not competative if all of his previous races were for non-winners of 2 lifetime. This same horse may have a signifcant class edge in a NW3 race if his previous efforts were unconditional claimers or even for horses who have not won 2 or 3 in a year. You also need to be aware of the AGE of the horses in prior races. A horse coming off races limited to 3 year olds is moving up if today's race is for 3 year olds and up (and there are older, more seasoned horses entered today).

In order to solve this dilemma, you need to have access to accurate class pars for every class level and a track class chart for making allowances for track class. For example, let us suppose we have a 5 year old horse that has been running in CLM$5,000NW2 races at Phildelphia Park and goes to Delaware Park to run in an open CLM$6,000 race. On its face this does not appear to be a big move up in class, particularly if the horse was running well in Philadelphia. Class pars tell the real story. The Philadelphia races have a par of 52. The Delaware race has a par of 72. This horse is moving up a substantial 38% in class! All else being equal, it will have little chance to win this race, let alone get in the money.

We have included accurate and reliable charts of class pars for every class level and track pars for every major and most minor tracks in our book Practical Handicapping along with many handicapped races showing you how to use them. This book is priced at $24.95 for our blog readers. As a special offer, we can provide you with just these charts and some sample class examples as a stand-alone product for just $5.95. If you are interested in the complete book or just want the charts send your check or money order to:

Sterling Publications
P. O. Box 1292
Hampton, VA 23661

In upcoming blogs we will show you how the proper use of class and track pars can create handsome profits at the track. You will be able to detect subtle moves in class that unearth hidden contenders that at first glance seem to be dogs with no winning chances. We spotted one just the other day that hit the board with a $21.60 win mutual and completed a fat $102.00 exacta even with the race favorite running second. Stay tuned and

Good luck!

EXACTA BETTING

Most handicapping books on the market today offer little insight on how to play exactas. In this article we will show you how to play these value bets for significant profits. We assume, of course, that you are a good enough handicapper to pick a fair percentage of winning exactas.

For those players who can afford a decent size bet, we recommend that you consider the top three horses in a given race, based on your handicapping, as PRIMARY contenders and your 4th pick as a SECONDARY contender. You should buy a $4 exacta box on the top 3 horses ($24 bet). You should then key the top three on top each other PLUS your 4th pick (e.g., key the number one contender on top of the 2-3-4, the 2 on top of the 1-3-4, etc.) at the $2 betting level. Each key will cost you $6. Your total bet is then $42. If your box comes in one of your keys will also come in meaning you will have 3 winning tickets on that exacta. If your #4 horse sneaks in you will have that exacta 1 time. You should only play the keys when your #4 horse will generate enough of a payout to not only cover your losing bets but also a decent return on your total bet. Since you will only have one ticket if the #4 horse places you should demand a minimum exacta payoff of at least 150% of your total bet. This would mean a minimum exacta of $63.

If you can't get a decent price on your #4 horse with any of your top three, don't use the key - just box your top 3. If you have a value bet on one key or 2 keys but not on the others, just bet those keys. A lower bet means your acceptable payoff will also drop. One key makes your total bet $30 which allows a play for a minimum #4 horse exacta of $45.

Of course, even with the right price you will lose your bets if the #4 wins. If you are a reasonably decent handicapper this should not happen often and don't fret over it when it does. Because you are going deep into the contention, your #4 often goes off a a fat price and will get you some equally fat exacta payoffs.

Getting multiple hits on an exacta will offset a low price exacta payout. Suppose you make a full bet (box plus all keys) and the exacta is 1-2 but only pays $20. You have this exacta 3 times returning $60, a nice profit of $18 which is almost 150%. If your keys don't play and you just box you get this exacta twice earning $40 on a $24 bet which is a 167% profit.

To see the profit potential, suppose you only hit 3 small exactas and one decent one ($30, $38, $18 and $75) on a 10 race card. Some races are full bets and others have some or no keys so we will assume an average wager of $33 ($330 for the day). You #4 horse completed the $75 exacta so you only got it 1 time, your boxes got the other 3 (for 3 hits each). Your total return for a rather dismal day is still $333. If the $75 exacta was in your box, your return would be $483, a 146% profit.

If your exacta hit rate is less than 40% or your rate is a little higher but only for short prices, you need to bone up on your handicapping. Also, if you can't afford the full bet, use $1 exactas for a maximum wager of $21. Huge profits can be made with a hit rate of 50% or more at decent prices. When you are considering 4 horses in every race it is not that hard to hit 50%. You can do that well off the morning line picks. The occasional big payoff ($100 or more) when you have it 3 times can really add to your bottom line.

In our book "Practical Handicapping" (see blog index) we show how a good day can generate PROFITS of well over $1,000, even with average exacta prices.

Good luck!