WHAT IS A FALSE FAVORITE?
In horse racing a "false favorite" is a horse that is the mutual betting favorite but it has one or more flaws in its record that makes it very vulnerable to a poor finish. Handicappers that can spot and bet against false favorites are often rewarded by getting significant overlaid prices on the horses that have been overlooked by the public.
A classic example of a false favorite appeared in the 8th race at Philadelphia Park on March 11th of this year. The race was at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds in an open claimer for 25,000. The favorite in that race was a horse called "Truly Pro" who went off at 8/5 odds, up slightly from 6/5 just before post-time . The running line of his last start showed a wire-to-wire win by 2 3/4 lengths. He set sizzling fractions of 21 2/5, 44 flat and 57 4/5 while gaining the easy win.
What was wrong with this horse? To begin with, he had been laid off for nearly 2 months following the win. He showed 4 workouts in the interim but his last work was 9 days prior to today. One could easily accept that he may still be sharp if that were the only problem but there were several others. This lightly raced 3 year old had just 2 starts and both at 5 1/2 furlongs. Although stretching out to 6 furlongs did not seem to be a big deal for a young colt we also noted that he lost 1 1/4 lengths of his lead in the stretch of his last race and blew a 2 1/2 length lead in the stretch in his previous outing while finishing 3rd. The next fact we noted was that he won on a muddy track and his previous race was also on an off track. The track today was fast. The biggest pock mark on this horse's record, however, was that he won a Pennsylvania state bred maiden claimer with a tag of $25,000. His move today into an open claimer at the same price level was a huge move up in class. Using the Class Chart from our publication "Practical Handicapping II", the actual class increase was a whopping 48%! Our statistical studies have clearly demonstrated that a move upward of more than 10% in class, using our Class Chart, is almost impossible to overcome for any horse unless they showed success at this level in the past, which was definitely not the case here.
After applying our handicapping figures to the entire field, in accordance with the "Practical Handicapping II" method, we completely eliminated this horse as a contender. We structured our exacta bets using the 4 horses we considered to be the true contenders in this race.
As expected, our false favorite broke smartly and went for the lead. He never attained it although he was briefly in second place before beginning to fade on the turn. He continued to fade into oblivion and finished well out of the money. Our number 4 contender narrowly edged out our top choice who, at 2/1 odds. was really the legitimate favorite in this race. However, since our No. 4 horse went off at 15/1 odds the combination returned a juicy exacta of $140.20!
To summarize, false favorite status applies when a horse has more than one knock against it but if there is a serious class issue that is by far the most important factor. Long layoffs, for example, can be forgiven if the horse ran well against equal or better competition in the past and comes from a well trained barn. We also give a horse the benefit of the doubt when it shows distance and/or surface changes (other than moves between grass and dirt) by assuming that most trainers know what they are doing. Major class moves are, however, extremely troubling. Fortunately, the rating methods we have developed in "Practical Handicapping II" will take care of these situations by downgrading the horse to secondary contender status or, as in the above example, non-contender status. This book is obtainable through Sterling Publications at a spring reduced price of $19.95 and can be obtained at P.O. Box 1292, Hampton, VA 23661.
A classic example of a false favorite appeared in the 8th race at Philadelphia Park on March 11th of this year. The race was at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds in an open claimer for 25,000. The favorite in that race was a horse called "Truly Pro" who went off at 8/5 odds, up slightly from 6/5 just before post-time . The running line of his last start showed a wire-to-wire win by 2 3/4 lengths. He set sizzling fractions of 21 2/5, 44 flat and 57 4/5 while gaining the easy win.
What was wrong with this horse? To begin with, he had been laid off for nearly 2 months following the win. He showed 4 workouts in the interim but his last work was 9 days prior to today. One could easily accept that he may still be sharp if that were the only problem but there were several others. This lightly raced 3 year old had just 2 starts and both at 5 1/2 furlongs. Although stretching out to 6 furlongs did not seem to be a big deal for a young colt we also noted that he lost 1 1/4 lengths of his lead in the stretch of his last race and blew a 2 1/2 length lead in the stretch in his previous outing while finishing 3rd. The next fact we noted was that he won on a muddy track and his previous race was also on an off track. The track today was fast. The biggest pock mark on this horse's record, however, was that he won a Pennsylvania state bred maiden claimer with a tag of $25,000. His move today into an open claimer at the same price level was a huge move up in class. Using the Class Chart from our publication "Practical Handicapping II", the actual class increase was a whopping 48%! Our statistical studies have clearly demonstrated that a move upward of more than 10% in class, using our Class Chart, is almost impossible to overcome for any horse unless they showed success at this level in the past, which was definitely not the case here.
After applying our handicapping figures to the entire field, in accordance with the "Practical Handicapping II" method, we completely eliminated this horse as a contender. We structured our exacta bets using the 4 horses we considered to be the true contenders in this race.
As expected, our false favorite broke smartly and went for the lead. He never attained it although he was briefly in second place before beginning to fade on the turn. He continued to fade into oblivion and finished well out of the money. Our number 4 contender narrowly edged out our top choice who, at 2/1 odds. was really the legitimate favorite in this race. However, since our No. 4 horse went off at 15/1 odds the combination returned a juicy exacta of $140.20!
To summarize, false favorite status applies when a horse has more than one knock against it but if there is a serious class issue that is by far the most important factor. Long layoffs, for example, can be forgiven if the horse ran well against equal or better competition in the past and comes from a well trained barn. We also give a horse the benefit of the doubt when it shows distance and/or surface changes (other than moves between grass and dirt) by assuming that most trainers know what they are doing. Major class moves are, however, extremely troubling. Fortunately, the rating methods we have developed in "Practical Handicapping II" will take care of these situations by downgrading the horse to secondary contender status or, as in the above example, non-contender status. This book is obtainable through Sterling Publications at a spring reduced price of $19.95 and can be obtained at P.O. Box 1292, Hampton, VA 23661.
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