INFORMATION OVERLOAD
Present day past performance racing publications such as the Daily Racing Form, Bris, TRN and others provide handicappers with huge amounts of information that were not available in the "old days" when the only 2 available past performance publishers were the Daily Racing Form and the Morning Telegraph. There were no speed or pace figures, speed or class ratings, Tomlinson Ratings or even fractional times in these early publications. If a handicapper wanted to use speed ratings he had to create them himself, a laborious and time consuming task. Class analysis was difficult because the class figure shown in the publication did not contain all of the limiting conditions of the race (e.g., an open claimer and one for non-winners of 2 lifetime were both listed the same way) and there were no purse size data shown for the more expensive races. Only those who kept large files of results charts had access to this information. And, of course, there were no home computers to allow punters to use today's sophisticated handicapping software (e.g., AllWays, MultiCaps and others) , video replays or data files that can now be easily accessed.
The question still remains, however, does more information lead to better handicapping? Thirty years ago the average favorite won about 1/3 of all races on just about any race track. Today that statistic still holds true - the favorite wins about 1 out of every 3 races. Despite all of this improved data and computer generated selections, there has been no measurable improvement in the handicapping ability of the general public. Even the very best handicappers still have trouble exceeding the 33% win rate of the masses and the few who exceed this level usually are spot players who only bet specific types of races rather than playing the whole card from a given track. These specialists can use simulcasting to ferret out those narrowly defined races and the new technology and improved data has helped many of them to improve their win rates. The typical weekend race goer has neither the time nor the resources to search the national slate of races for "perfect" races to handicap - they still limit play to the race card for the track they are visiting or possibly a couple of tracks if they are at a simulcast parlor. It is easy for the casual horseplayer to be overwhelmed by all of this new data if he tries to incorporate too much of it into his doping out the races and can also be frustrated in trying to determine the importance of these new data elements. This is even more complex when one realizes that data measuring the same thing can lead to widely different results. It is impossible, for example, to compare Beyer speed figures with Equibase figures. A horse may have a higher Beyer than the Equibase rating in one race and a lower Beyer compared to Equibase in the next race. These inconsistencies can confuse just about anyone trying to pick a winner.
The solution to all of this is to remember the simple acronym KISS - Keep It Simple, Stupid. Find a fixed but limited number of factors that can be found in every past performance publication that can be readily compared to each other no matter which set of PP's you use. For example, a jockey's winning percentage will be the same no matter what the publication. Speed figures are most useful when compared to the speed PAR (when available) for today's race. It is more important to note that a horse ran 5 points better than par in his last race than what the actual numerical rating was in that race. Also, don't go too deeply into the past performance history of a horse. The last race run is by far the most important one in the PP's and if the horse ran poorly in it without a very strong excuse he will probably run poorly again today. Use trial and error or study some old PP's to determine what factors you will limit yourself to use and then use them - religiously, every time you handicap a race. Over time you will be able to develop your own winning percentage and may need to adjust or change some of the factors but eventually, if you stick with it, you can develop a satisfactory method that may not make you a millionaire but will give you a legitimate chance to have a winning day and, occasionally, a big winning day. Don't allow yourself to be buried under the information overload - too much information can be just as bad as not having enough to make a sensible bet.
Good luck!
Present day past performance racing publications such as the Daily Racing Form, Bris, TRN and others provide handicappers with huge amounts of information that were not available in the "old days" when the only 2 available past performance publishers were the Daily Racing Form and the Morning Telegraph. There were no speed or pace figures, speed or class ratings, Tomlinson Ratings or even fractional times in these early publications. If a handicapper wanted to use speed ratings he had to create them himself, a laborious and time consuming task. Class analysis was difficult because the class figure shown in the publication did not contain all of the limiting conditions of the race (e.g., an open claimer and one for non-winners of 2 lifetime were both listed the same way) and there were no purse size data shown for the more expensive races. Only those who kept large files of results charts had access to this information. And, of course, there were no home computers to allow punters to use today's sophisticated handicapping software (e.g., AllWays, MultiCaps and others) , video replays or data files that can now be easily accessed.
The question still remains, however, does more information lead to better handicapping? Thirty years ago the average favorite won about 1/3 of all races on just about any race track. Today that statistic still holds true - the favorite wins about 1 out of every 3 races. Despite all of this improved data and computer generated selections, there has been no measurable improvement in the handicapping ability of the general public. Even the very best handicappers still have trouble exceeding the 33% win rate of the masses and the few who exceed this level usually are spot players who only bet specific types of races rather than playing the whole card from a given track. These specialists can use simulcasting to ferret out those narrowly defined races and the new technology and improved data has helped many of them to improve their win rates. The typical weekend race goer has neither the time nor the resources to search the national slate of races for "perfect" races to handicap - they still limit play to the race card for the track they are visiting or possibly a couple of tracks if they are at a simulcast parlor. It is easy for the casual horseplayer to be overwhelmed by all of this new data if he tries to incorporate too much of it into his doping out the races and can also be frustrated in trying to determine the importance of these new data elements. This is even more complex when one realizes that data measuring the same thing can lead to widely different results. It is impossible, for example, to compare Beyer speed figures with Equibase figures. A horse may have a higher Beyer than the Equibase rating in one race and a lower Beyer compared to Equibase in the next race. These inconsistencies can confuse just about anyone trying to pick a winner.
The solution to all of this is to remember the simple acronym KISS - Keep It Simple, Stupid. Find a fixed but limited number of factors that can be found in every past performance publication that can be readily compared to each other no matter which set of PP's you use. For example, a jockey's winning percentage will be the same no matter what the publication. Speed figures are most useful when compared to the speed PAR (when available) for today's race. It is more important to note that a horse ran 5 points better than par in his last race than what the actual numerical rating was in that race. Also, don't go too deeply into the past performance history of a horse. The last race run is by far the most important one in the PP's and if the horse ran poorly in it without a very strong excuse he will probably run poorly again today. Use trial and error or study some old PP's to determine what factors you will limit yourself to use and then use them - religiously, every time you handicap a race. Over time you will be able to develop your own winning percentage and may need to adjust or change some of the factors but eventually, if you stick with it, you can develop a satisfactory method that may not make you a millionaire but will give you a legitimate chance to have a winning day and, occasionally, a big winning day. Don't allow yourself to be buried under the information overload - too much information can be just as bad as not having enough to make a sensible bet.
Good luck!
posted by Sterling Publications | 5:16 AM
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