SPEED FIGURES - WHERE IS THE STANDARD?
The Daily Racing Form gives its readers a Beyer Speed Figure for every race. Other racing form publishers (e.g., brisnet, equibase, tsnhorse, etc.) also provide speed figures in their past performances. Your local race track program may also give you a speed figure. And, of course, we have Time Form figures for some foreign tracks. The problem with all of these numbers is that they are all based on different, proprietary formulas and they cannot be used interchangeably. For example, you can't use a Beyer figure to compare a horse's speed against a bris figure. Class pars, if available, are geared to whatever speed figure is being used which means, for example, that Beyer Class Pars are tied to Beyer Speed figures.
Our research has shown that brisnet speed figures and resulting speed-class pars are about 10-15 points, on average, higher than Beyer figures and pars. However, this range can vary considerably from rating to rating. Sometimes the bris figures are actually lower than Beyer's. Time Form figures are about 10-15 points higher than an equivilent Beyer and, at best, can only give the handicapper a rough idea of what Beyer that horse is capable of. As of this writing, Time Form figures are only available to Daily Racing Form readers and the other services provide no speed figures at all for foreign imports. This inconsistency between these different numbers can lead to problems when handicapping the horses. To minimize these effects, a horseplayer could create his own speed figures using final times with adjustments for trailing lengths. This is a laborious process that also involves calculating track varients adding many hours to the handicapping process. This is impractical for most handicappers but there are ways to survive without doing this:
1. Always use the figures available from the publication you are using for today's races. Do not try and "adjust" figures to another publication's figures (e.g., do not try and "convert" Beyers into bris figures or vice versa);
2. Use standard class pars (such as those available from us in our publications) regardless of whose speed figures you are using. For example, a bris speed-class par for a given race on today's card might be 85 but our speed-class par might be 72. Since all of our speed-class pars are mathematically linked to each other, you should rate today's race at 72 and all other races in the PP's should be rated off these speed-class pars which, in effect, provides the CLASS rating of the horse;
3. You can then use the bris SPEED figure to compare the horse's speed ability against others in the race because, again, you are using a universal standard that allows an accurate comparison of SPEED between individual races and the other horses in this race.
If you handicap using this approach you will still be able to evaluate the relative ability of each entrant against each other and at this racing level. In our example above, if the bris speed rating for horse A in one of his races was an 82, we would consider him to be at 10 points higher than our CLASS par of 72. When all horses on today's card are evaluated this way, the relative differences between them will be the same even though the numerical differences (using other speed figures) would be different but the value of the numerical differences are really irrelevant.
Finally, we would like to implore all of the publishers of racing information to develop and use one standard for giving race goers speed and class figures, no matter what that standard may turn out to be. If that were to happen, every handicapper would have the same information no matter what program or form they were using. We would also implore the Daily Racing Form to provide its users with pace figures, something that was promised a long time ago but has never occurred. In the meantime
Good Luck!
The Daily Racing Form gives its readers a Beyer Speed Figure for every race. Other racing form publishers (e.g., brisnet, equibase, tsnhorse, etc.) also provide speed figures in their past performances. Your local race track program may also give you a speed figure. And, of course, we have Time Form figures for some foreign tracks. The problem with all of these numbers is that they are all based on different, proprietary formulas and they cannot be used interchangeably. For example, you can't use a Beyer figure to compare a horse's speed against a bris figure. Class pars, if available, are geared to whatever speed figure is being used which means, for example, that Beyer Class Pars are tied to Beyer Speed figures.
Our research has shown that brisnet speed figures and resulting speed-class pars are about 10-15 points, on average, higher than Beyer figures and pars. However, this range can vary considerably from rating to rating. Sometimes the bris figures are actually lower than Beyer's. Time Form figures are about 10-15 points higher than an equivilent Beyer and, at best, can only give the handicapper a rough idea of what Beyer that horse is capable of. As of this writing, Time Form figures are only available to Daily Racing Form readers and the other services provide no speed figures at all for foreign imports. This inconsistency between these different numbers can lead to problems when handicapping the horses. To minimize these effects, a horseplayer could create his own speed figures using final times with adjustments for trailing lengths. This is a laborious process that also involves calculating track varients adding many hours to the handicapping process. This is impractical for most handicappers but there are ways to survive without doing this:
1. Always use the figures available from the publication you are using for today's races. Do not try and "adjust" figures to another publication's figures (e.g., do not try and "convert" Beyers into bris figures or vice versa);
2. Use standard class pars (such as those available from us in our publications) regardless of whose speed figures you are using. For example, a bris speed-class par for a given race on today's card might be 85 but our speed-class par might be 72. Since all of our speed-class pars are mathematically linked to each other, you should rate today's race at 72 and all other races in the PP's should be rated off these speed-class pars which, in effect, provides the CLASS rating of the horse;
3. You can then use the bris SPEED figure to compare the horse's speed ability against others in the race because, again, you are using a universal standard that allows an accurate comparison of SPEED between individual races and the other horses in this race.
If you handicap using this approach you will still be able to evaluate the relative ability of each entrant against each other and at this racing level. In our example above, if the bris speed rating for horse A in one of his races was an 82, we would consider him to be at 10 points higher than our CLASS par of 72. When all horses on today's card are evaluated this way, the relative differences between them will be the same even though the numerical differences (using other speed figures) would be different but the value of the numerical differences are really irrelevant.
Finally, we would like to implore all of the publishers of racing information to develop and use one standard for giving race goers speed and class figures, no matter what that standard may turn out to be. If that were to happen, every handicapper would have the same information no matter what program or form they were using. We would also implore the Daily Racing Form to provide its users with pace figures, something that was promised a long time ago but has never occurred. In the meantime
Good Luck!
posted by Sterling Publications | 6:59 AM
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