HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING: RACES WITH MULTIPLE CONTENDERS

Many races, especially small field races, have one or two serious contenders and perhaps another horse or two that could complete the exacta or trifecta. By serious we mean horses that are likely to go off at 3/1 or less. However, there are some races where the contention is very close and there may be several entrants that have a longshot at the win as well as a definite threat in the exotics. The first consideration is how to determine if a race is one of these contentious races and, when so identified, how to profitably bet the race.

Most good handicappers make an odds line based upon whatever handicapping factors they use to dope out the race. I strongly recommend that, if you are not doing this now, you should. Don't rely on the morning line since that is based on someone else's judgment and not your own. Also, the morning line odds total up to 120-125% and not 100% which is the standard for a true betting line. The line you make, if you are reasonably good at it, will easily uncover the contentious race. Just doing a line will make you a better handicapper. In my line, I consider any horse with odds below 8/1 to be a potential factor in the exotics. If I have a race where my lowest odds horse is 2/1 or higher and there are several others below 8/1, it is a contentious race.

Contentious races offer excellent opportunities to cash in on some very lucrative exacta and trifecta payouts. For example, let us suppose your line shows a horse at 5/2, a second horse at 7/2 and three others at odds from 4/1 to 7/1. I do not bet trifectas but I would handle my exacta wager by keying my top two horses over the three (i.e., my number 1 horse over number 2 and the other 3 horses and my number 2 horse over number one and the other 3. Using $2 exactas the total wager is $16. I only make this wager if my number 1 horse and number 2 horse over the other 3 horses will pay an exacta of at least $30. My 1-2 horse box is acceptible at any price since these are the two most likely to make the exacta and the public confusion should generate a decent price that will likely be a significant overlay. This way if I hit the exacta I should obtain a better than 50% profit on the race. If one or more of my possible "extended" bets would pay less than $30, I eliminate it. I can then lower my $30 standard on the remaining bets as long as my better than 50% profit margin is preserved. When the 4th or 5th contender runs second (and they should not win very often if your line was good) the exacta payoffs can be substantial.

The ideal contentious race for me is two solid contenders plus no more than 2 others. I can then key my top THREE horses with each other and over my 4th choice. The bet is $18 but the 3 horse contender box greatly increases your chance of winning this exacta. My key bets over the 4th choice must still pay no less than $30.

One final note. In the unlikely event you have a race with more than 5 possible contenders it is far more prudent to pass the race than to try and force a bet out of it. There are too many contenders and you can rest assured that if you eliminate one or more of them to keep your bet size reasonable that eliminated horse will get a piece of the exacta and ruin your day.

Good luck!

HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING: MYSTERY HORSES

Every once in a while you will find a horse entered in a given race that is making a huge dropdown in class. Most of these horses show a big gap in time since their last race so a handicapper can logically assume that it suffered an injury and the owner is trying to get rid of damaged goods. But what if there is no big gap? I call these horses "Mystery Horses" since their entry in today's race doesn't seem to make any sense.

Consider the horse "Houston's Prayer" who was entered in a lowly $4,000 claiming race at Philadelphia Park on July 22 of this year. This horse's last race was only 35 days before today and he showed a workout just 7 days ago. His last start was a second by a nose loss as the favorite at Belmont Park in a $16,000 claimer. Two races back he was claimed for $35,000 at Aqueduct. During the spring he was running in claimers of $50,000 or more and even ran 5th in a $70,000 handicap at the Meadowlands. He has career earnings of more than a quarter of a million dollars. What the heck is he doing in a $4,000 claimer at a much cheaper track? More importantly, how do you handicap this race with him in it?

One would think that this horse would destroy this field even if he ran on three legs. Do you bet him? It would certainly be attemped suicide to ignore him. So, what should an astute handicapper do in this situation? The only answer is to PASS the race. A tip-off that there is something very wrong about this horse being in this race is during the pre-race betting his odds were holding between 3/1 and 2/1. If he were at all healthy his odds should have been 3/5 or less. This factor indicated that this horse's connections were not betting the animal. He has to have some serious problems but are they enough to cause him to lose against the cheapest stock on the grounds?

The answer to the mystery is WE WILL NEVER KNOW. The horse was scratched at the gate on the order of the track veternarian. If we had bet this horse there was not enough time to make new bets before the race started. As it turned out, two big longshots hit the board for a big exacta. Avoiding this race was by far the best decision. Given the huge drop in class for this horse he should have been checked out by the vet before he left the barn and not ruin the race for bettors by scratching him at the gate.

The above is an extreme example of a Mystery Horse but they crop up with relative frequency. These horses create an element of uncertainty that one really cannot handicap and the race becomes a guessing game. When faced with a horse like this, the best thing to do is to simply pass the race. There will be many more races to bet on that will not incorporate Mystery Horses. Avoid them like the plague.

Good luck!

HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING: THE JOCKEY FACTOR

In our last blog we discussed the importance of the quality of a horse's trainer as a major factor when handicapping a race. Today, we will take a look at the jockey factor. It would seem to be obvious that the best jockeys at any given track get to ride the better horses at that track. It would also seem obvious that poorer jockeys rarely have the chance to ride the better horses due to their inferior riding ability. The trick is to determine the characteristics that identify these two jockey catagories.

Our research based on non-maiden races has determined that a jockey that can win 15% or more of his starts (with 50 or more starts) has a significant edge over jockeys who do not do as well. This edge is even more pronounced if the jockey has ridden the horse in the past and especially so if he shows a prior win on this horse. About 80% of the jockey colony at the average track cannot meet this 15% standard. Since they are the majority of the riders they still win about 25% of the races. However, in terms of Impact Values, this is equates to an IV of 0.35 which is a significant negative. If one of these riders shows a past effort on this horse (winning or losing), the IV improves a little to 0.45. This is still a very low IV and would hardly instill confidence in an astute handicapper. These negative IV's include all riders with winning percentages below 15%. Horses ridden by Jockeys with win percentages below 10% are extremely poor betting propositions and are most likely in the race for excercise.

Approximately 49% of the races are won by the elite group. Even if a 15% jock has never ridden on this horse before, he still has a strongly positive IV of 2.45. If he has won on this horse in the past, the IV shoots up to an amazing 3.15. Of course, there are many races, especially the highest quality races, where there is more than one 15% rider. Non-elite jocks are at a severe disadvantage when competing against several elite jockeys in the same race. When there is more than one of these top riders, other handicapping factors need to be applied to sort out the better bets among them but you should severly discount the chances of horses ridden by inferior jockeys.

In quality races (top allowances, handicaps and stakes) all trainers want the best to be atop their best. They might allow an average jockey to ride their cheaper horses but not when they are going for the big bucks. There is very little tolerance for jockey error in a big race. Many trainers have difficulty getting elite jockeys on their mounts because these top riders have prior committments to other trainers. Quality trainers have a small group of quality jockeys that they routinely use in these big races. There is tremendous competition among jockey agents to gain the attention and favor from these trainers for the jocks they represent.

At any race level, a horse that is trained by a trainer who wins 15% or more of the time that is also being ridden by a 15% or better jockey, especially one that has previously won on this horse, is a powerful combination that should never be ignored or overlooked by a handicapper. If you find just one such horse in a race you have an excellent spot play, especially if the odds are favorable.

This research and our trainer research shows the importance of paying attention to these factors in order to improve the handicapping bottom line. Therefore, do not be overly swayed by a horse's apparently decent recent past races if it comes from both a poor barn and is ridden today by a poor jockey. Routinely betting such horses is an almost sure way for you to wind up with holes in your shoes.

Good luck!

HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING: THE TRAINER FACTOR

It should be obvious to any handicapper that a horse entered into a given race that has a trainer with a high winning percentage is a better betting proposition than a horse from an inferior barn. The questions are how significant is this factor and at what winning level does a trainer have to show in order to get extra consideration. We have just completed an extensive study of this issue and have reached the following conclusions:

1. A trainer that has at least 30 starts in his current record and who shows a winning percentage of 15% or higher has a huge edge over trainers that cannot meet this standard;
2. Trainers that win 15% or more of the time accounted for 35% of the trainers in our study but they won an amazing 67% of the races;
3. Trainers with winning percentages between 10-14% constituted 26% of all trainers but won only 16% of the their races;
4. Trainers showing a win percentage of less than 10% or, over at least a 6 month period of time had less than 30 starts, constituted 39% of all trainers but they only accounted for 18% of the winners.

Impact Values (IV's) are a comparison of the percentage of horses that won their races divided by the percentage of all entrants that posses a certain characteristic; in this case, trainer winning percentage. An impact value higher than 1 is a positive factor, less than 1 is negative and exactly 1 is neutral. Our study showed that the 15% or better trainer's impact value was a highly signicant 1.90. The 10-14% group had a negative IV of 0.60 and the less than 10%/less than 30 starts group had a terrible IV of 0.46.

There are many races in which there is more than 1 trainer with a 15% or better rating. There are also races where no trainer rates that high which is why the winning percentage of this group seems high. Certain conclusions can , however, be made from these statistics. A race that has NO trainers with a 15% or better rating is really a crap shoot. None of these trainers have the face value ability to assure the bettor that their horses are fit and able to win and, since some nag has to win, it could be just about anything in the race. It would therefore be prudent to pass these kind of races unless you really like to gamble. In races were there are multiple 15% types, and these are usually the better races on the card, winning percentage is a good tool to use when identifying contenders. Horses with inferior trainers in these races seldom win and can usually be eliminated outright. The 15% standard means the remaining horses are likely to be fit and ready to run and other handicapping factors (e.g., class, speed, etc.) can be used to separate them. The ideal race is one in which there is a single entrant from a 15% or better barn. This horse has an edge over the rest as long as there are no glaring flaws in its record. The horse becomes an even more outstanding bet if the trainer's winning percentage is 20% or more.

One other factor about trainers is worth noting. Handicappers sometimes toss a horse because they are trying something new (first time on grass, new distance, higher class, etc.). However, if the trainer of that horse is in the elite 15% or better category, smart handicappers should give the trainer the benefit of the doubt that he knows what he is doing with these kind of moves. The Racing Form trainer stats shown for each horse can also be very helpful in the decision to "forgive" a horse. In a previous blog we honed in on a horse trying the grass for the first time. The trainer showed a 17% win percent for first time on the grass starters and an overall 20% win rate. We "forgave" the surface switch and had this horse in our exacta. He won and paid $21 to win and completed a $101 exacta. The good guys know how to train and they know their horses much better than you do so PAY HEED to that winning percentage!

Good luck!