DAILY RACING FORM SPEED FIGURES
The Daily Racing Form speed figures have been maligned by many handicapping writers since the advent of Beyer figures. The DRF speed numbers are based on a comparison to best times at the distance in the past 3 years coupled with a varient calculated off of that day's races. The critics claim there are many flaws in this approach. Critics say that a horse may run a 75 DRF rating at a cheap track but could never run to a 75 at a classier track since the best time at the distance for the cheap track is likely to be much slower than at a better track. They say the varient does not account for the fact that the overall class of a given day's races may be lower than another day which creates high varients even though the true track speed might be the same on both days. They point out that Beyer figures account for class and track speed differences and are much better indicators of a horse's true speed potential.
That being said, we have found the DRF speed figures to be very useful in our handicapping when we use them in CONJUNCTION with Beyer figures. DRF ratings, flawed as they may seem to be, are really not as flawed as the critics state when you look carefully at today's racing scene. The advent of simulcasting has allowed smaller tracks to have access to much larger betting pools than they ever had before simulcasting. This has allowed them to increase their purse sizes and add stakes events that attract better horses. The result is that best times at most tracks are made by good horses. The days of the $2,500 purse are long gone.
There are two ways a handicapper can incorporate the DRF into the analysis of a horse's ability. The first way is to simply combine the DRF with the Beyer figures. DRF varients need to be first compared to a neutral par. A varient of 15 - 20 should be viewed as a zero (i.e., the track is neither fast nor slow); varients of 21 to 30 (slow track) should be viewed as +1 to +10 and varients below 15 (fast track) should be subtracted point for point (e.g. a 10 varient would equal -5). Disregard and varient amount above 30 (i.e., the maximum would be +10). The second, and even better method, is to make an additional adjustment based on Beyer Class pars, if they are available. For example, if the Beyer figure for a horse is 75 but the class par for that race was an 80, subtract 5 points from the Beyer figure since the horse did not run to the par level for that race. This can even being further refined by making a second class par adustment by comparing the horse's Beyer to the class par for TODAY'S race.
We have developed a very sophisticated Class Par Chart in our book Practical Handicapping. This chart is Chart consists of a blending between Beyer Class pars and Cynthia Class Pars for all class levels, including adjustments for subtle class differences (e.g., a race for non-winners of 2 lifetime has a different rating than one for non-winners of 2 in a year). This Chart, combined with a companion Track Class Adjustment Chart, is alone worth the price of our book. Readers can find ordering information in our past list of prior blogs.
Good luck!
The Daily Racing Form speed figures have been maligned by many handicapping writers since the advent of Beyer figures. The DRF speed numbers are based on a comparison to best times at the distance in the past 3 years coupled with a varient calculated off of that day's races. The critics claim there are many flaws in this approach. Critics say that a horse may run a 75 DRF rating at a cheap track but could never run to a 75 at a classier track since the best time at the distance for the cheap track is likely to be much slower than at a better track. They say the varient does not account for the fact that the overall class of a given day's races may be lower than another day which creates high varients even though the true track speed might be the same on both days. They point out that Beyer figures account for class and track speed differences and are much better indicators of a horse's true speed potential.
That being said, we have found the DRF speed figures to be very useful in our handicapping when we use them in CONJUNCTION with Beyer figures. DRF ratings, flawed as they may seem to be, are really not as flawed as the critics state when you look carefully at today's racing scene. The advent of simulcasting has allowed smaller tracks to have access to much larger betting pools than they ever had before simulcasting. This has allowed them to increase their purse sizes and add stakes events that attract better horses. The result is that best times at most tracks are made by good horses. The days of the $2,500 purse are long gone.
There are two ways a handicapper can incorporate the DRF into the analysis of a horse's ability. The first way is to simply combine the DRF with the Beyer figures. DRF varients need to be first compared to a neutral par. A varient of 15 - 20 should be viewed as a zero (i.e., the track is neither fast nor slow); varients of 21 to 30 (slow track) should be viewed as +1 to +10 and varients below 15 (fast track) should be subtracted point for point (e.g. a 10 varient would equal -5). Disregard and varient amount above 30 (i.e., the maximum would be +10). The second, and even better method, is to make an additional adjustment based on Beyer Class pars, if they are available. For example, if the Beyer figure for a horse is 75 but the class par for that race was an 80, subtract 5 points from the Beyer figure since the horse did not run to the par level for that race. This can even being further refined by making a second class par adustment by comparing the horse's Beyer to the class par for TODAY'S race.
We have developed a very sophisticated Class Par Chart in our book Practical Handicapping. This chart is Chart consists of a blending between Beyer Class pars and Cynthia Class Pars for all class levels, including adjustments for subtle class differences (e.g., a race for non-winners of 2 lifetime has a different rating than one for non-winners of 2 in a year). This Chart, combined with a companion Track Class Adjustment Chart, is alone worth the price of our book. Readers can find ordering information in our past list of prior blogs.
Good luck!
posted by Sterling Publications | 7:15 AM
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