THE CURSE OF THE TRIPLE CROWN?

While the racing world hopes for the best with regard to the fate of Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, a look back at recent Triple Crown races reveals a disturbing trend. It began with Charismatic, winner of the Derby. This was followed by Fusaichi Pegasus, Point Given, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and now Barabaro. Every one of these horses never raced again after their last Triple Crown race. All of them sustained a racing injury, either during a Triple Crown event or after their last Triple Crown race and the public never got the chance to see them race again. All of them were also heavily favored to win a Triple Crown race in at least one of their starts.

While none of the other horses listed above sustained an injury as serious as Barbaro's, it makes one wonder if the winner of a Triple Crown race is doomed to injury if it becomes the betting favorite in or for another Triple Crown event. While some people might think the crueling path to the Triple Crown may take a toll on these young horses, it does not explain what happened to Barbaro since his easy Derby win was after a 5 week hiatus from racing and he avoided most of the Derby prep races. If I were an owner or trainer of a potential Triple Crown race winner, I might think twice about entering my horse given the recent history. Food for thought?

Horse racing carries with it an element of speculation. The goal of winning handicapping is to reduce that speculation to a minimum. Readers are encourged to look back into our previous blogs and consider, based on their content, our book Practical Handicapping which is described in detail in an earlier blog. We will continue to provide free insights into the art and science of handicapping in future blogs. In the meantime,

Good Luck!

ESTIMATING EXACTA PAYOFFS

If you regularly play exactas like I do, it can be frustrating to correctly pick it only to have a tiny payoff. If you are at the track you can see the estimated payoffs on the tote board and simulcast sites also display these numbers but sometimes these figures may not be readily available to you (e.g., you are making an advance wager or are playing several simulcast sites at one time making it difficult to catch these numbers). In order to determine what your likely exacta will be, and whether or not the payout will be high enough to justify a bet, you should consider the following :

1. Know your own exacta win rate. If you can pick 60% of all played exactas than you are going to lose 40% of the time. Your winners have to first pay enough to offset your losers and leave you with a reasonable profit. If you bet $20 per race on exactas and hit 60%, the average exacta must pay at least $17 to make a minimal 2% profit. If your rate is 50%, youneed a $20 average to break even. You don't want to be getting a lot of $10 - $15 exactas or you will wind up with holes in your shoes.


2. Create an accurate odds line. By accurate we mean that your line should reflect the true probability of the horses in a given race and it should be based on a 100% level and not the usual 120-125% used in the morning line odds. If you are not the type of player that creates your own line, you can use a good morning line from a reliable source such as the Daily Racing Form but you will do much better if you can do your own 100% line.


3. Once you have a line, you can estimate the likely exacta payout for each combination by multiplying the odds of the horse you think will win by 2 and then multiply that number by the odds of the second horse after adding the number one to the second horse's odds. For example, if the top horse is 2/1 and the second horse is 8/1 the likely exacta will be 2 X 2 X 8+1) = $36. The reverse of this exacta should pay 2 X 8 X (2+1) = $48. That is what it SHOULD pay and the actual payoff is usually very close to these numbers at most tracks. If the line you are using is accurate, you may be able to win or break even at those prices depending on your exacta win rate.


4. You don't want to risk just breaking even; you want a profit margin to offset your losing bets. You should therefore increase these payouts by at least 25% (to $45 and $60).


5. Compare your calculated odds line with the morning line (adjusting for scratches) or the current pre-race track odds when available. Compare your odds against these track odds and if both horses are overlayed by at least 25% you have a solid exacta play. You may have to do the math using the track or morning line odds when you have an overlay on 1 horse and an underlay on the other to determine what combinations are playabe and what ones are not. Sometimes, ALL of your combinations are underlays and you should skip betting exactas on this race.


Good Luck!